Implied probability
The win chance a moneyline price states, once converted from American odds to a percentage.
Formula
favorite: |odds| / (|odds| + 100); underdog: 100 / (odds + 100)A moneyline of -150 implies about 60%, and +130 implies about 43%. The two sides of a game add to more than 100%, and the excess is the sportsbook's margin. Divide each side by the sum to remove it.
Converted this way, a price can be compared with a model's probability directly. The gap between them is the edge a bettor is claiming.
The common mistake
Forgetting to remove the margin. Both sides of a line imply a few points too much, so a raw conversion makes every game look closer to a coin flip than it is.
Where to get it
Related
Implied probability from the API
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