Win probability
also: WP · win prob
The chance a team wins, given the score, time left and who has the ball, recomputed on every play.
ESPN publishes a win probability for the home team after each play of NBA games from 2018. The curve is the shape of the game: a steady climb, a late swing, a comeback that never quite gets above 20%.
Differences between consecutive plays measure each play's weight. That is how a game's biggest moments are found, and how clutch performance is separated from a lead that was never in danger.
The common mistake
Win probability is a model's estimate from the game state, not the pregame price. Do not compare it with a sportsbook line from before tip-off.
Where to get it
Related
Win probability from the API
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