Expected points per shot
also: xPts · shot quality
The points a shot is worth on average, from where it was taken and what kind it was, fitted on league history.
expected points = P(make | location, shot type) x shot valueEach field goal attempt in the play-by-play carries an x/y location. We fit the make rate for that location and shot type on league history, then multiply by the shot's value, two or three. The result is what an average shooter would be expected to score from that spot.
Summed over a player's or team's shots it measures shot selection. Summed against actual points it measures shot making. Those are different skills, and one number each is how you separate them.
Expected points describe an average shooter. A great shooter beats it on purpose, so a positive gap is not always luck, and a negative one is not always a bad shot.
Where to get it
Related
Expected points per shot from the API
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